The growing military cooperation raises questions about Thailand’s long-term strategic intentions and the balance of power in Southeast Asia.
Since the mid-1980s, Thailand has navigated a complex web of defense relationships, with its ties to China becoming increasingly pivotal. In recent years, this partnership has intensified, particularly following Thailand’s 2014 military coup, which redefined its strategic orientation amid shifting global dynamics.
Understanding the implications of the evolving Sino-Thai relationship is essential for not only the entire Southeast Asian region, but also the rest of the world including the U.S.
RESPONSE TO DIMINISHING U.S. ENGAGEMENT
The 2014 coup marked a significant turning point. The United States, historically a key ally of Thailand, responded to the military takeover by cutting military aid and limiting defense cooperation. This shift compelled Thailand’s junta to seek deeper military ties with China, which was all too willing to expand its influence in the region. As the U.S. retreated, China seized the opportunity, offering both financial incentives and a military partnership that filled the void left by America.
The implications of this pivot are multifaceted. Economically, China has become Thailand’s largest trade partner and a major source of foreign investment. Militarily, the Thai military has begun to rely on Chinese arms, including submarines and tanks, as well as increased participation in joint exercises. These developments signal not just a shift in procurement but a broader strategic alignment that could reshape regional security dynamics.
MILITARY COOPERATION
Since 2014, Thailand has entered a new phase in its defense procurement strategy, marked by significant purchases from China. The acquisition of three diesel-electric submarines for over $1 billion stands out as a historical milestone. Not only does this reflect Thailand’s desire to modernize its navy, but it also illustrates a commitment to maintaining regional military parity, particularly against neighbours who already possess advanced submarine capabilities.
Moreover, the frequency and scope of joint military exercises between Thailand and China have increased significantly. These exercises often focus on non-traditional security threats, such as disaster relief and counter-terrorism, ostensibly to avoid alarming neighboring countries. However, the growing military cooperation raises questions about Thailand’s long-term strategic intentions and the balance of power in Southeast Asia.
BALANCING RELATIONS
Despite this burgeoning relationship with China, Thailand continues to value its alliance with the United States. The Thai government is acutely aware of the risks associated with over-dependence on China, particularly in the context of rising U.S.-China tensions. There remains an ongoing effort to maintain a delicate balance, ensuring that ties with the U.S. are not entirely severed.
Yet, the reality is that the U.S. has struggled to restore the depth of its relationship with Thailand that existed prior to the 2014 coup. While recent moves to normalize relations and restore military aid signal a potential thaw, Thailand’s continued engagement with China complicates this dynamic. The country appears to be hedging its bets, seeking to maximize its security options in an increasingly polarized global landscape.
CONCLUSION
As Thailand deepens its military ties with China, the implications extend beyond bilateral relations; they reflect broader geopolitical shifts in Southeast Asia. The trajectory of Thai-China defense cooperation raises critical questions about regional stability, U.S. influence, and the future of security partnerships in the region.
Thailand’s pivot towards China is not merely a reaction to U.S. disengagement; it represents a strategic recalibration in an era where military alliances are tested by political realities. The balance of power in Southeast Asia may be undergoing a fundamental transformation, with Thailand at the forefront of this shift. As nations grapple with their place in a changing world order, Thailand’s choices will likely resonate throughout the region for years to come.
Bahauddin Foizee is an analyst & columnist focusing on the assessment of threat/risk associated with business, economy and investment as well as legal, security, political and geopolitical threat/risk. His articles on these areas as well as on social, environmental, financial and military affairs in the Asia-Pacific/Indo-Pacific and Middle East regions have been widely published.
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