Indian ammunition, initially sold to Italy and the Czech Republic, is now in the hands of Ukrainian forces. […] If verified, this could signal not only a shift in the battlefield but also a strain in a historically strong relationship with Moscow.
In the ever-shifting landscape of international relations, India currently finds itself at an embarrassing situation. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s characterization of Russia as a “trusted ally” and “all-weather friend” has long defined New Delhi’s foreign policy. However, recent developments have thrust India into the spotlight, revealing the complexities of its arms trade amidst the Russia-Ukraine war.
According to Reuters, Indian ammunition, initially sold to Italy and the Czech Republic, is now in the hands of Ukrainian forces. While India’s Ministry of External Affairs dismissed these claims as “speculative and misleading,” the Russian government has raised pointed questions regarding New Delhi’s oversight of its exports. If verified, this could signal not only a shift in the battlefield but also a strain in a historically strong relationship with Moscow.
India’s defense exports have increased recently, reflecting its ambition to bolster domestic manufacturing while simultaneously increasing its global footprint. From 2018 to 2023, India exported $3 billion worth of arms, with exports to Italy and the Czech Republic soaring from $2.8 million to over $135 million in just two years.
This growing arms trade underscores a duality. While India aims to establish itself as a significant exporter in the global defense market, it must grapple with the unintended consequences of its arms reaching conflict zones.
Has India inadvertently positioned itself as an “equal opportunity supplier”? This question looms large. If Indian artillery shells are indeed being used against Russian forces, it raises ethical and strategic concerns about arms exports and the role of third-party countries in conflict dynamics. This situation echoes historical precedents where military equipment, intended for one purpose, found its way into another’s arsenal, highlighting the challenges of monitoring arms once they leave national borders.
Despite the mounting evidence of Indian ammunition in Ukraine, experts suggest that the strain in India-Russia relations may be limited. Indian shells account for a mere 1% of Ukraine’s ammunition needs, and both countries have long-standing ties rooted in Cold War cooperation. However, this narrative is complicated by Modi’s diplomatic overtures to Ukraine as a result of succumbing to U.S. pressure—a perception that may undermine India’s credibility in Moscow.
Moreover, as India seeks to mediate between Russia and Ukraine, its historical ties with Moscow may raise questions about its neutrality. While Modi’s meetings with both President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and President Vladimir Putin signal an intent to play peacemaker, the realities on the ground—where both sides seem committed to military solutions—pose significant challenges. Experts doubt whether India can effectively mediate in a conflict where both parties believe they can achieve their objectives through force.
The implications extend beyond bilateral relations. The ongoing conflict has exposed supply chain vulnerabilities within NATO and its allies, as evidenced by their scramble for munitions to support Ukraine. India’s arms exports, while economically beneficial, may unintentionally exacerbate tensions and complicate its diplomatic posture.
As India navigates this complex terrain, it must confront the uncomfortable reality that arms sales do not occur in a vacuum. The responsibility that comes with being a supplier in a global market means acknowledging the potential consequences of those exports. With geopolitical tensions escalating and the stakes high, India stands at such a crucial point of time where its actions could redefine its role on the world stage.
For India, balancing its historical ties with Russia while engaging with Ukraine requires not just strategic acumen but also a commitment to the principles of responsible arms trade. As the world watches, the future of India’s foreign policy may very well hinge on its ability to manage these competing interests while striving for a more peaceful resolution to the ongoing conflict.
Nicholas Lovric is a researcher and consultant specializing in Russian and Eastern European affairs. His work typically involves analyzing political, economic and social trends in the region. His expertise spans subjects such as international relations, geopolitical dynamics, security issues and regional development.
OpEd Column Syndication 